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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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